A changing population

Auckland is growing and changing due to:

  • a natural increase in population
  • domestic relocation (people moving here from other areas)
  • immigration.

We need to deliver services and infrastructure to provide for our changing population. Through our regulatory role (making sure rules are followed) we also need to make sure development is safe and of appropriate quality.

Between 2012 and the end of 2022, Auckland's population grew from 1.4 million to over 1.7 million - an average of two per cent annually. Over the next 10 years it is forecast to increase by a further 200,000 to nearly 2 million.

Our Future Development Strategy sets out how Auckland will grow and change over the next 10 years.

Housing supply assessment

Based on the usual resident population projection (the number of people who usually live in an area over time), households are forecast to grow by 34 per cent, or just under 200,000 additional resident households by 2052.

Tāmaki Makaurau / Auckland will need at least the same number of total additional dwellings (residential homes and retirement village units), to bring the total to around 773,000 dwellings.

This allows for a change in demographics (statistical data about specific population groups), an increase in the total number of Aucklanders and preference changes (choices) within the population that could increase the need for more dwellings.

The 200,000 additional residential households does not include replacing existing dwellings or redeveloping existing sites, but it does make sure there is enough accommodation for:

  • students
  • visitors
  • temporary workers
  • mixed family situations.

Our estimated medium to long-term capacity (our ability to handle demand) for new dwellings is currently 2,615,580. This is much higher than the expected demand.

Although it makes financial sense to provide this housing, we do not need it all at once.

This is detailed in the Housing and Business Development Capacity Assessment for the Auckland Region 2023.

Decorative image of construction workers building a house and digging the land.

Demand for Infrastructure

Following changes in the Unitary Plan (which guides the use of Auckland's natural and physical resources, including land development) there is more high-intensity development of residential land.

The fast growth is also creating a lot of demand for infrastructure investment in both brownfield (previously built on) and greenfield (never built on) areas.

If we keep building new developments in areas without public infrastructure, it could create major problems such as:

  • safety of services and amenities (such as water and sewage)
  • transport systems that do not allow people to move around communities easily.

We want to support growth but need to take a careful approach to spending in the long-term plan. One option could be for us to increase our infrastructure investment and increase rates and debt to pay for this.

However, we need to consider if we can afford to do this and what the long-term effects on the natural environment and the climate might be.

Priority Growth Areas

We are prioritising infrastructure to support housing and growth in spatial priority areas (specific places for certain activities) in this long-term plan, as set out in the Auckland Future Development Strategy.

This includes:

  • the Auckland Housing Programme (Mt Roskill, Māngere, Northcote and Tāmaki regeneration area)
  • City Centre (City Rail Link (CRL) stations at Maungawhau and Karang-a-Hape)
  • the north-west (Westgate, Red Hills and Whenuapai)
  • Drury.

The Future Development Strategy also identifies other areas that need community investment or more infrastructure.

What we propose

In this long-term plan, we prioritise supporting housing and growth in spatial priority areas (specific places for certain activities) as set out in the Future Development Strategy.

However, affordability considerations means we have to take a limited approach to investing in these areas over the next decade.

We are also working with the Ministry of Housing and Urban Development and Kainga Ora - Homes and Communities to use the Housing Acceleration Fund to support intensification of the Auckland Housing Programme areas.

Our approach to development contributions (a fee we charge new developments to fund infrastructure) is to recover a fair share of infrastructure costs over a 30-year timeframe. We have applied this policy to Drury and plan to apply it to the north-west.

We will consider the exact nature and timing of investment in the programme as part of the development of:

You should know

The information on this page is an edited version of the proposed Long-term Plan 2024-2034. For more information, see page 90 of the Long-term Plan 2024-2034 Consultation Document [PDF 17MB].